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This new report, written by Dr. Anthony Cordesman, Bryan Gold, and Chloe Coughlin-Schulte, discusses the four main pillars defining Iran’s relationship with the United States and its European allies: sanctions, energy, arms control, and regime change. How do all four of these factors influence the ability of the P5+1 to come to an agreement with Iran over its nuclear program and potentially its other destabilizing activities?

Click here to read the full report.

The key issue now shaping US and Iranian competition is whether the new and growing mix of US and EU sanctions can in fact lead to a real-world negotiated end to the aspects of Iran’s nuclear programs that will give the capability to deploy nuclear weapons. More broadly, it is whether these negotiations can go further, and create a more stable relationship between Iran and the US, Europe, and the other Gulf states. It is also whether the US and other members of the P5+1 will show the resolve to enforce and strengthen sanctions if Iran does not comply with the interim agreement and accept and comply with a full agreement, and whether some combination of the US and regional states will continue to build up a level of military capability and deterrence that will give Iran continuing incentives to improve relations and move back from the current regional arms race.

 

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