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Article by: John Gay

Published by: The American Conservative

In this article, NSWG member John Gay argues that Trump’s unambiguous withdrawal from the Iran deal removes an environment of uncertainty, a factor that may have been curbing Iranian aggression. Gay contends, “Iran’s desire to keep America in the deal and the Europeans off America’s side must have had something to do with the sudden and sustained end to Iranian harassment of U.S. Navy vessels in the Persian Gulf. American troops have largely been safe from Iranian militia violence in Syria and Iraq, and Iran hasn’t made a serious attempt to retaliate against Israel for repeated strikes on Iranian assets in Syria.” Now that this ambiguity has eroded, we may see renewed aggression in hotspots such as Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq. We may even see a US-Iranian war. Gay turns his focus to Europe: how the rest of the P5+1 will handle the news in the weeks to come, and whether Trump will impose secondary sanctions to European companies that do business with Iran. Gay suggests that Iran has already secured a major victory: the splitting of America and Europe.

Read the full article here.